Trump Again? WTF?
Please check out the Firebrand article on this topic!!:
https://firebrand.red/2024/11/trump-again-wtf-a-marxist-analysis-of-the-us-election-results/
Trump in office will sharpen the contradictions within the ruling class as well as between the ruling class, the state and ordinary people. This will give revolutionaries more opportunities to organize. We need to seize those opportunities and not be discouraged by Trump’s accession to office.
Trump’s win in the Electoral College on Nov. 5 was a surprise to many observers and especially Harris supporters. What does this mean for U.S. politics? Are the American people turning to the Right? How should left activists and especially Marxists respond?
What does the election say about current consciousness? Are a majority MAGA now?
People approach elections pragmatically. The majority decides on the basis of lesser-evilism. They estimate which candidate will be better for themselves and society generally. They may or may not estimate this correctly based on information they have. They do not necessarily embrace the political philosophy or program of the candidates. In this election, the aftermath of covid was decisive. Inflation had eaten into living standards since 2021. Small businesses and even some larger ones were under severe pressure. Workers’ wages overall continued to stagnate or decline. The wealth of the “booming” economy went to the top. Many people had nostalgia for a time of lower inflation under Trump. They forgot that lower inflation came from the economic collapse from Covid. They mistakenly associated presidential administrations with economic conditions. Federal economic policies impact the economy, but do not determine them. This was a fundamental basis for the pro-Trump vote.
Are Trump voters all MAGA? No! A core of petty bourgeois Trump supporters are full MAGA, racist, sexist, anti-immigrant, etc. However, Trump continued to have a negative approval rating even among many of those who voted for him. Trump’s core support had never broken 50%. Obviously, people who voted for Trump were influenced by racism, sexism etc. in that his bigotry was not a deal-breaker for them — just as genocide was not a deal-breaker for Harris supporters. MAGA will get a boost from Trump’s election.
Who voted?
As with all recent elections, only a bare majority vote. The total number of voters is down from 2020 by roughly 14 million. The voting population is more affluent than the overall population. Most felons and non-citizen immigrants cannot vote. Much is made by pundits of working-class Trump supporters and the “non-college educated” white voters. However, “non-college educated whites” includes many middle-class as well as working class voters. Trump’s voting base in previous elections and likely in this one as well is middle class people (small employers, managers, cops, independent professionals). This is shown by the occupations of the January 6 rioters. Of course, there were millions of working-class Trump voters but Trump voters were not a majority of the working class. In fact, in 2024 a larger percentage of union workers voted Democrat than in 2020. Liberal elitists are quick to inaccurately blame workers for Trump’s victory. Liberal pundits assume incorrectly that working class and poor Trump voters are “voting against their own interests”. This is not true because neither party represents the interests of workers and the poor. Both support militarism, ecological destruction, profit over people etc.
Where did people stand on the issues?
Abortion rights initiatives continued their streak of victories since the Dobbs decision. Five of the seven abortion rights measures won majority support, even in Missouri, Arizona and Florida, states that went for Trump. In Florida the initiative failed because it needed 60% and only won 57%. The vote for progressive sides of other initiatives likely continued as well. In every state where abortion rights initiatives were held, they won a higher vote than the Harris campaign.
Why this discrepancy? Harris made a major point of calling for the reinstitution of Roe vs. Wade — -abortion rights until viability. If people voted for abortion rights, why didn’t they vote for the candidate who said she favored them? This is a common pattern on every issue. If people who voted on the left side of an initiative also voted Democrat, there would often be a Blue wave. The simple answer is that people don’t trust politicians and for good reason. Democrats have claimed to be pro-choice since 1973. They have had numerous opportunities to enshrine abortion rights in federal law. Harris’ claim that she would do so now rang hollow. In considering whether to vote for a candidate, people consider their whole record, not just their stance on the initiative.
On Immigration the picture is different. The Republicans AND Democrats have relentlessly promoted bigotry against immigrants. The Democrats ran to the right of Republicans, championing a reactionary anti-amnesty bill that almost passed Congress last February. In the face of this barrage, public opinion has shifted in the wrong direction, though there is still significant support for immigrant rights.
On the genocide in Gaza, voters had no choice between Trump and Harris. Harris’ support of genocide cost her votes, but likely dnot enough to be decisive.
Could Democrats have won if they ran further left?
Left liberals and “Democratic Socialists” often urge the Democrats to put forward a more left-wing platform. They do this because they want the Democrats to win. They are advisors to a fundamentally capitalist/imperialist party. This is an attempt to rehabilitate a party that serves capital not workers. But would this even work? Harris embraced militarism (“We want the most lethal military in the world”) She continued the support of genocide. She stressed national security and won support from generals, the Cheneys etc. Yet she also threw in liberal proposals — child tax credit, home buyer assistance, an attack on price-gouging etc. She moved rightward with some liberal flourishes. Her problem as noted above is that few believed her. Politicians lie to get elected. People know that. They look at results, not just rhetoric. The results are that the Democrats have embraced neoliberalism and austerity for nearly 50 years and people know that in their guts if not consciously. Often people would vote for liberal or left-wing initiatives but they don’t necessarily follow politicians who bring them out at election time.
As many have pointed out, Trump did not win this race. Instead the Democrats lost it! Trump got roughly the same number of votes in 2024 as he got in 2020 in the low 70 millions. In 2020 , Biden got 81 million votes. In 2024 ,Harris got 67 million votes . The Democrats lost in 2024 because they lost 14 million votes after 4 years of Democratic Party rule. All the celebrities, Republican endorsements and a billion dollars could not hide the pain people felt under Biden’s rule.
Even an independent labor party would face a challenge similar to what the Democrats face. A Labor Party with a pro-worker platform would have to prove itself in practice to win support. In the past, Labor parties have been coopted by capitalism, moderated their politics and lost support.
Does this election change how Marxists see the goal of working- class self-emancipation?
No!
Marxists see the working-class as the class that can transform capitalism into socialism through a revolution. In a revolutionary crisis workers can take control of the economy and reorganize it to meet human needs. In order to do that, workers will need a transformation in consciousness. They will need to reject capitalist politics and embrace the goal of overthrowing capitalism. This transformation of consciousness is caused by the horrors of capitalism and the struggle against it by workers and the oppressed. No one can predict when a social/economic/political crisis will force this transformation. When that time comes, revolutionary working-class organization will be essential to make the revolution successful. In the meantime, working-class struggle can increase anti-capitalist consciousness.
This goal does not make Marxists blind to the current consciousness of workers! Marx said “the ruling ideas of any age are the ideas of the ruling class”. Short of a revolutionary situation, the consciousness of the majority of workers is mixed. It contains pro-ruling class ideas and ideas of struggle against exploitation and oppression. Marxists need to make an accurate assessment of the consciousness of particular groups of workers. This is necessary to frame exactly how to increase the level of struggle, which in turn furthers development of consciousness. It does Marxists no good to be inaccurately optimistic or pessimistic about current consciousness. It does Marxists no good to downplay the prevalence of racism, sexism etc.
The existence of reactionary ideas among groups of workers does not in any way invalidate the goal of working-class self-emancipation. The prevalence of oppressive ideas such as racism, sexism, immigrant bashing, anti- LGBTQ bigotry etc. today does not prevent the ultimate goal of socialist revolution. — — though of course those ideas disrupt solidarity and hold the struggle back. A key role of Marxists is to fight against oppressive ideas and institutional oppression.
In 1917, workers in Russia overthrew the 1000-year monarchy, took power and began the transition to socialism. Yet just 12 years earlier in 1905, they had religious processions appealing to the Czar and some engaged in pogroms against Jews. Consciousness can change rapidly but can best be sustained through organization.
Marxists need to understand that in most periods, we will be a small minority. Transformation of consciousness is necessary for the transformation of the economy and society. Rosa Luxemburg said “There is no real victory but the final one.” Likewise, fundamental transformation of consciousness comes only in revolution. We build toward that transformation by promoting struggle and revolutionary organization among a minority today.
Though there will need to be tactical changes based on political conditions, the fundamental strategy remains the same no matter who is in the White House, Congress or the Supreme Court. Marxists will need to have discussions on how to organize in this new period.
Trump in office will sharpen the contradictions within the ruling class as well as between the ruling class, the state and ordinary people. This will give revolutionaries more opportunities to organize. We need to seize those opportunities and not be discouraged by Trump’s accession to office.
Addendum from Payday, a labor news site on progressive initiatives passed in the Nov. 2024 election:
In Nebraska, voters overwhelmingly approved a measure that would allow workers to get paid sick leave.
In Alaska, workers approved a measure that would also raise the minimum wage to $15-an-hour and give workers paid sick leave.
Finally, in a major win in New Orleans, residents voted 80%-20% to pass a measure that would create a “Workers Bill of Rights” as part of the City’s charter.
Ballot Initiative Wins Happening Elsewhere
- Denver passes collective bargaining rights, firefighter arbitration, removes citizenship requirement to work in public safety
- Nevada removes forced labor as a punishment for crime from their state constitution
- Oregon allows cannabis workers to unionize
- Illinois passes a measure allowing for stiff penalties for anyone who attacks or threatens an election worker
- Finally, New York passed an equal rights amendment as part of their state constitution that stiffens penalties against employers, who discriminate against minorities.
